There’s a growing trend in Virginia’s early voting that should be raising alarm bells for Kamala Harris and the Democrats as Election Day approaches.
Traditionally, early voting has been a domain dominated by Democratic voters, but this year, things are looking different. As of October 14, 2024, Republicans have shown up in unexpectedly high numbers, closing the gap in a way that’s likely sending shockwaves through Democratic ranks.
Here’s a breakdown of the numbers: out of the 693,662 votes cast so far, Democrats hold a lead at 52.8%, with Republicans trailing at 41.5%. While Democrats are still ahead, the expected advantage for them at this stage should be around 30%, not just 11.3%.
This is a massive shift compared to 2020, when Democrats had a 33% lead by the end of early voting. The reduction of that lead in 2024 suggests that Republicans are turning out in stronger numbers than anticipated, even during early voting, which has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold.
Virginia Voted Early or Absentee as of 10/14/24
693,662 Dem 52.8% /NP 5.63%/ Rep 41.5%
18-29 6.30 % / 30-39 6.05% / 40-49 8.11% / 50-64 25.8% /65+53.7%*VA is a MODELED PARTY AFFILIATION STATE – Follow L2-data for Non Partisan Early Return Information https://t.co/BjqITtVAHZ pic.twitter.com/Jrjqax04hC
— L2 Data (@L2political) October 14, 2024
Political analysts and observers are already talking about the weekend’s surge of Republican votes, calling it a potential game-changer. One observer even tweeted that 13 days of Democratic early voting gains were “wiped out in a single weekend.” While we need more data to confirm whether this trend will hold, it’s clear that Republicans are outperforming expectations.
Virginia hasn’t been seen as a battleground state for Trump this election cycle, especially given his loss to Biden there in 2020 by 10 points. But this early voting data is making it look like the Old Dominion may indeed be in play. Not only that, but the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Governor Glenn Youngkin over removing non-citizens from voter rolls adds another layer of intrigue.
Democrats might be feeling the pressure, and Youngkin’s response—that this lawsuit is a “desperate attempt” to undermine the legitimacy of the elections—suggests Republicans are gearing up for a fierce battle.
Virginia Early Return Ballots: 2,356,812 28% R / 61% D / 11% NP
A: 18-29 13% / 30-39 12% / 40-49 14% / 50-64 29% / 65+ 31%
Asian 4% / White 66% / Hispanic 5% / AfAm 14%
HS Diploma 16% / Bach Degree 21% / Grad Degree+ 16%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 13% https://t.co/Zwc2KpkpU2 pic.twitter.com/rByc0xGJhL— L2 Data (@L2political) November 1, 2020
There’s also a Senate race happening in Virginia, with incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine facing off against Republican Hung Cao. Kaine had been considered safe, with a significant polling lead over Cao, but early voting trends could change the landscape.
Cao’s recent debate performance, where he hammered Kaine and the Democrats on crime, immigration, and the economy, could be just the boost he needs to make this race competitive.
