As the Democratic National Convention (DNC) wraps up, you’d expect Vice President Kamala Harris to be riding a wave of momentum, especially as she officially accepts her party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential race.
However, in a surprising turn of events, it’s her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, who seems to be gaining ground, particularly in the betting markets.
According to a recent report from Fox Business, Trump has surged ahead on at least two major betting platforms, Polymarket and BetUS. On Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election jumped to 52%, up from 46% just a week prior. Meanwhile, Harris saw her odds drop from 51% to 47% over the same period, despite the DNC being in full swing.
August 10 update:
Trump: 42.5%
Harris: 41.5%Some people don’t like the “unallocated” %, so I’ll leave that out. It can be calculated by 100 – 42.5 – 41.5 = 16.0%.
If this confuses you, convert to a minimum price / odds at which it’s worth considering a bet:
Trump 100/42.5 =…
— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) August 10, 2024
BetUS also showed Trump making significant headway. While Harris still held a slight edge with a 54.55% chance compared to Trump’s 52.38%, the gap was narrowing, and Trump appeared to be on the rise.
So, what’s behind this unexpected boost for Trump? According to Tim Williams, the public relations director for BetUS, it might be linked to several factors. One possibility is the recent news about the Biden-Harris administration’s job numbers, which were revised down by 818,000 jobs. This revelation could be undermining Harris’s economic narrative, making voters and bettors more skeptical of her chances.
Another factor could be the speculation surrounding a potential endorsement of Trump by independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Such an endorsement could be a game-changer, shifting support from Kennedy’s base to Trump, further boosting his odds.
As the third night of the DNC drags on, Trump has taken a 7% point lead in the gambling markets, moving from -10 to +7 in a few days, a pretty seismic 17% swing. RFK, Jr (potentially) endorsing him has stolen the DNC narrative. pic.twitter.com/sZ8klV1QHd
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) August 22, 2024
Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane offered another perspective, suggesting that Harris’s recent economic proposals and her handling of policy questions might not be resonating well with the public, contributing to her slipping odds.
Clay Travis, a commentator, echoed this sentiment, pointing out that Trump’s surge could be a result of the rumored RFK endorsement. He noted that the betting markets showed a significant swing, with Trump gaining a 7% lead, moving from -10 to +7 in just a few days. This shift, Travis argued, might be overshadowing the DNC narrative.
