The July Consumer Price Index report landed like another win for President Donald Trump’s economic team—and another embarrassment for the professional “experts” who keep predicting inflation doom under his tariff-heavy trade policy.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI rose just 0.2% in July and held steady at 2.7% year-over-year for the second straight month, beating forecasts once again.
Core CPI—which strips out food and energy—was up 0.3% for the month and 3.1% annually, with most of that driven by shelter costs. Energy prices actually fell 1.1%, and food prices were flat overall, with grocery prices even dipping 0.1%.
In other words, the tariff wave that critics swore would hammer consumers has yet to materialize in any meaningful way. Household furnishings ticked up slightly, but clothing and many imported goods stayed flat. Even Jared Bernstein, a former Biden White House economist, admitted the price impact “isn’t hair on fire at this point.”
Trump, never one to miss the moment, immediately used the report to turn up the heat on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In a Truth Social post, he blasted “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell” and urged the Fed to cut rates at its September 16–17 meeting, arguing that the economy is strong enough to “blow through” Powell’s delays.
Markets reacted positively to the numbers. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both jumped 0.6%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.8%, fueled by investor optimism that stable inflation could open the door to looser monetary policy.
The details of the CPI also undercut the Left’s favorite anti-tariff talking point. Trump’s levies—now in place against more than 90 countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%—are clearly not driving runaway prices.
That includes his high-profile 50% duties on India and Brazil, as well as the still-pending showdown with China, for which Trump just granted a 90-day tariff extension while negotiations continue.
CNN, which has been quick to link tariffs to consumer pain, was forced to note the numbers with a hint of disbelief: “Look at that food. This is where people spend their money… flat, 0%, and actually down at the grocery store.”
