The Texas Senate race has burned through more than $500 million in ad spending, yet the two main candidates look more like a mess than a clear choice. Ken Paxton leads James Talarico by just half a point in the newest numbers released on Tuesday.
Both men have spent weeks dealing with their own personal storms rather than talking about the future of the state. Talarico vanished from the trail for over a week after a fundraiser in New York City with actor Robert De Niro. His team says he was sick with the flu, but the silence made people wonder.
A new poll from Quantus Insights shows Paxton at 47.2 percent while Talarico sits at 46.7 percent. The survey notes that Republican strength among older voters meets a Democratic edge with independents. “Our latest Quantus Insights survey finds Paxton ahead by half a point, as Republican strength among older and rural voters meets a Democratic advantage among independents,” the summary reads, according to Breitbart.
Paxton holds a strong grip on his own party with 87 percent of GOP voters behind him. He also leads voters aged 65 and older by a wide margin. Talarico wins big with voters under 30, taking 62 percent of that group. The race comes down to the middle-aged and the swing voters who are still deciding.
Ken Paxton has been stuck with leaked audio clips from a fundraiser in Washington. The recordings show him complaining to national leaders about a lack of support from Senator John Cornyn. He also voiced frustration that the party’s midterm convention hurt his chances and that he lacks control over his own campaign.
Reports from the Wall Street Journal mention a video from New Year’s 2025 showing Paxton in Dubai. Talarico faced his own trouble when he disappeared for days. He reemerged on a Friday to deny any foul play, but the gap in time left questions unanswered.
Republican strategist Dennis Lennox offered a sharp take on what might happen if the Democrat wins. “If Talarico wins, it won’t be because he’s the next George W. Bush, ushering in a Texas political realignment,” Lennox said, according to the Washington Examiner. Lennox added that Republicans in the Lone Star State were burdened by a corrupt, lazy standard-bearer saddled on them by Trump, and that is the reason.
Despite the noise, high-profile leaders are stepping in to help. On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance went to Texas to gather backing for the Attorney General. President Trump also made his third trip to the state in a month to campaign for Paxton.
Outside groups have poured massive cash into the contest. In September alone, the Texas PAC aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund expended $131 million. Veteran pollster Clifford Young notes that these scandals are confusing voters but not necessarily changing their minds. “It’s clouding things a bit for voters. But it won’t change, necessarily, their minds,” he said.
