This past Saturday, a top independent pollster claimed that all polls going forward could very well severely undercount Republican voters due to the current political climate.
As part of a thread created on Twitter, Robert C. Cahaly, the Trafalgar Group chief pollster, stated that Old Uncle Joe’s recent full-scale attack on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will cause the polling of supporters of former President Donald Trump to become even more difficult than it has been over the past few election cycles. Cahaly highlighted that over the past two presidential election periods, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats have almost always ended up sparking the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” However, as we come up quickly to the 2022 midterms, Biden’s ever-escalating rhetoric targeting Trump and his supporters, hurling accusations at them of embracing “semi-fascism” and of being an overt threat to America as a whole, will end up making the polling of these people that much harder.
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” stated Cahaly in the social media threat. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” Cahaly went on to explain. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“I call this new group ‘submerged voters,’” stated Cahaly. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
“The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” he finished. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
Other independent polling groups chimed in to endorse the assessment from Cahaly.
“Yes, call them an enemy of the state one month, and next month participation [falls],” explained Big Data Poll director Richard Baris. “And those who do claim to be ‘undecided’ across the board.”
“Voter demonization leads to devilish difficulties in surveying,” stated Rasmussen Reports , seemingly promoting Cahaly.
Cahaly’s comments come in the wake of a warning from New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn that stated that mainstream polling is significantly overestimating the support being expressed for Democrats and is headed for yet another serious polling mishap.
