Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer recently shared her concerns about polling numbers in the Great Lakes State, particularly in the context of Vice President Kamala Harris’s perceived lead over former President Donald Trump.
Speaking candidly at the Texas Tribune Festival, Whitmer expressed doubt over a CNN poll showing Harris with a five-point advantage in Michigan, cautioning against complacency and predicting a much tighter race.
The poll in question, which also included battleground state Wisconsin, positioned Harris ahead of Trump by 48% to 43% in Michigan, and 50% to 44% in Wisconsin. However, Whitmer made it clear that she doesn’t fully trust those figures, insisting that the political landscape in Michigan will be far more competitive than such polls suggest.
In her view, any early indication of a significant lead may be misleading, as she emphasized the unpredictable nature of the state’s electorate.
Reflecting on past election dynamics, Whitmer referenced the 2016 presidential election, when Michigan swung unexpectedly to Trump by a razor-thin margin of just 11,000 votes. She also pointed to the role of third-party candidates like Jill Stein, who received over 11,000 votes, as potentially decisive in that contest.
Although Whitmer mistakenly claimed that the recent poll didn’t factor in third-party candidates, the CNN poll indeed did include figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Chase Oliver, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Even with these additional candidates, none polled above 4%, though Kennedy, having since suspended his campaign, remains a potential factor in Michigan’s voting landscape.
Whitmer’s broader concern hinges on Michigan’s unique political history. The state is known for its volatile electoral swings, frequently alternating between Democratic and Republican leadership. This unpredictability was a central theme of her remarks as she reflected on the state’s tradition of ticket-splitting and political independence.
In 2016, Michigan played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, but in 2020, the state returned to the Democratic column with Joe Biden’s win. Whitmer’s warning signals that Democrats cannot afford to take Michigan for granted, and that the race between Harris and Trump will likely come down to the wire.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in the state, but it’s a margin of just over one point—far from the comfort zone.
